Igor Shesterkin - Invalid

[Smashville / PredsGM]

42.75 fp, 12 games.

a) If your player has less than 60 total games in last 2 seasons, offer a bridge contract with a contract valuation that you feel best represents the player

I believe a precedent was set last off-season for contracts of similar nature to this with the Gusev signing. A player with potential, but has yet to establish himself with a sizeable sample size in the NHL. There is just no guarantee that players will pan out as some analysts project, which is subjective and and at best, an educated guess.

To review the Gusev signing and feedback on the denied and accepted versions of the contact, see below.

frozenh2odynasty.proboards.com/thread/5085/nikita-gusev-1-denied (Gusev denied, 750k x 2 years)
frozenh2odynasty.proboards.com/thread/5126/nsh-nikita-gusev-900-2021 (Gusev accepted, 1.9m x 2 years)

I'd like to offer an identical contract to Gusev, 1.9m x 2 years.

[chris - Hartford Whalers]

i think we should prorate those missing games. I did a quick look and it appears he played 12 out of 29games down the stretch using his 1st game played as starting metric. This would give us 5 more games played out of the 12 remaining ranger games never played.

i am thinking 60.56 / 17gp which is obv up to interpretation/debate.

[Smashville / PredsGM]

If the advice is to extrapolate the data, respectfully I would have expected the same for Dumba’s numbers which were omitted his recent re sign attempt. I think we can agree that small sample size seasons need to be treated as just that.

Extrapolating a small sample size doesn’t depict an accurate picture. The Rangers were pushing for a playoff spot and subsequently their play improved over this span. Young goalies tend to struggle in their first couple of seasons. A small sample size just can’t show the up and downs of an NHL season.

[Devils GM(Colin)]

I agree with Cal, Shesty had 0.5 better fp/g than the next goalie (Rask) and thats simply not sustainable, especially on a fringe playoff team.

[chris - Hartford Whalers]

Oct 19, 2020 9:15:02 GMT -5 chris - Hartford Whalers said:

i think we should prorate those missing games. I did a quick look and it appears he played 12 out of 29games down the stretch using his 1st game played as starting metric. This would give us 5 more games played out of the 12 remaining ranger games never played.

i am thinking 60.56 / 17gp which is obv up to interpretation/debate.

i retract my comments..

[JetsGM (Jacob)]

Denied 0-1.

I disagree that precedence was set with Gusev last year. We have no precedence for a highly-touted goalie prospect coming into the league and immediately setting it on fire. Shesterkin has giving us a preview that he's ready to play in the NHL, something that Gusev did not show. The goalie position is also significantly more important that a single skater slot. If anything, Shesterkin may set precedence for Sorokin next year.

I agree we can't extrapolate a small sample size, but it is telling that NYR let Lundqvist go, they full expect to run with Shesterkin as, at worst, a 1B this season, and more than likely as starting goalie or 1A. So, what I can do is extrapolate his started GP (12/29=~34/82) over a full season and compare to an avg of goalies in that range (30-40GP), which is ~2.09 fppg. That would leave him at ~71 fpts, so around a 2.5M re-sign.

However, if he's 1A, which he is projected to be, then it's more likely he plays closer to 50GP, again at 2.09, projects him at 105 fpts (4.5M range).

If you want to build an argument that Shesterkin is actually a below average NHL goalie, something his small sample size and qualitative data (NYR likely being stronger this year than last) disagrees with, I'll consider it, however I think a 2-year re-sign at this amount is too much of a bargain.

1 year @ 1.9M. I'll approve for a limited sample size + prove it deal knowing that he'll establish himself next year.
2 years @ 4.25M. You take on the risk that he may be a below-average goalie, but if he's anything equal or above, then this would still be a slight bargain over the 2 years

[Smashville / PredsGM]

Oct 19, 2020 15:03:29 GMT -5 JetsGM (Jacob) said:

Denied 0-1.

I disagree that precedence was set with Gusev last year. We have no precedence for a highly-touted goalie prospect coming into the league and immediately setting it on fire. Shesterkin has giving us a preview that he's ready to play in the NHL, something that Gusev did not show. The goalie position is also significantly more important that a single skater slot. If anything, Shesterkin may set precedence for Sorokin next year.

I agree we can't extrapolate a small sample size, but it is telling that NYR let Lundqvist go, they full expect to run with Shesterkin as, at worst, a 1B this season, and more than likely as starting goalie or 1A. So, what I can do is extrapolate his started GP (12/29=~34/82) over a full season and compare to an avg of goalies in that range (30-40GP), which is ~2.09 fppg. That would leave him at ~71 fpts, so around a 2.5M re-sign.

However, if he's 1A, which he is projected to be, then it's more likely he plays closer to 50GP, again at 2.09, projects him at 105 fpts (4.5M range).

If you want to build an argument that Shesterkin is actually a below average NHL goalie, something his small sample size and qualitative data (NYR likely being stronger this year than last) disagrees with, I'll consider it, however I think a 2-year re-sign at this amount is too much of a bargain.

1 year @ 1.9M. I'll approve for a limited sample size + prove it deal knowing that he'll establish himself next year.
2 years @ 4.25M. You take on the risk that he may be a below-average goalie, but if he's anything equal or above, then this would still be a slight bargain over the 2 years

We're being far too subjective with our re-signs and not rewarding GMs who are patiently waiting for older players to enter the NHL. Shesterkin was drafted via the prospect dispersal draft, as a fantasy owner I've never been the benefactor of bargain years for Shesterkin,  which we usually get 2/3 years of for prospects. There is a strong reason those bargain years exist. These players simply don't have a strong enough NHL track record, they're rookies with no guaranteed ice time or games started.  Potential is just that, it's an educated guess which means nothing. Shesterkin isn't guaranteed to be anything more than a solid backup this season. He has to fight an established NHL goalie who just re-signed with NYR in Georgiev.

If we're going to draw comparisons, let's look for a solid and reasonable example closer to home in the New York system. Georgiev, had 2 seasons as the 1B and is now poised to goal-tend more than in the years past. He recorded 33 and 34 GP the past 2 seasons. A fair arguments would perhaps be that Shesterkin would follow a similar trajectory to his Russian counterpart as he's eased into the NHL where he's sure to encounter some bumps as a Rookie who hasn't been battle tested in North America.

[JetsGM (Jacob)]

Oct 19, 2020 15:03:29 GMT -5 JetsGM (Jacob) said:

Denied 0-1.

I disagree that precedence was set with Gusev last year. We have no precedence for a highly-touted goalie prospect coming into the league and immediately setting it on fire. Shesterkin has giving us a preview that he's ready to play in the NHL, something that Gusev did not show. The goalie position is also significantly more important that a single skater slot. If anything, Shesterkin may set precedence for Sorokin next year.

I agree we can't extrapolate a small sample size, but it is telling that NYR let Lundqvist go, they full expect to run with Shesterkin as, at worst, a 1B this season, and more than likely as starting goalie or 1A. So, what I can do is extrapolate his started GP (12/29=~34/82) over a full season and compare to an avg of goalies in that range (30-40GP), which is ~2.09 fppg. That would leave him at ~71 fpts, so around a 2.5M re-sign.

However, if he's 1A, which he is projected to be, then it's more likely he plays closer to 50GP, again at 2.09, projects him at 105 fpts (4.5M range).

If you want to build an argument that Shesterkin is actually a below average NHL goalie, something his small sample size and qualitative data (NYR likely being stronger this year than last) disagrees with, I'll consider it, however I think a 2-year re-sign at this amount is too much of a bargain.

1 year @ 1.9M. I'll approve for a limited sample size + prove it deal knowing that he'll establish himself next year.
2 years @ 4.25M. You take on the risk that he may be a below-average goalie, but if he's anything equal or above, then this would still be a slight bargain over the 2 years

Working on re-signs and other stuff and I've been thinking of this all night and I'm going to amend my ask but not my denial, I don't think it's fair to ask for 1B salary, and essentially 6.6M on the 2nd year based on my acceptable 1 year amount.

1 year @ 1.9M
2 years @ 3.5M

I really am not interested in arguing or having my voting objectivity called into question, so this will be my last response on this vote attempt #1. We have 4 other awesome voting mods to sort this out from here. I have full confidence that an approval or denial will be the correct decision for this league moving forward, whichever way it is decided.

[Smashville / PredsGM]

Oct 19, 2020 21:22:16 GMT -5 JetsGM (Jacob) said:

Oct 19, 2020 15:03:29 GMT -5 JetsGM (Jacob) said:

Denied 0-1.

I disagree that precedence was set with Gusev last year. We have no precedence for a highly-touted goalie prospect coming into the league and immediately setting it on fire. Shesterkin has giving us a preview that he's ready to play in the NHL, something that Gusev did not show. The goalie position is also significantly more important that a single skater slot. If anything, Shesterkin may set precedence for Sorokin next year.

I agree we can't extrapolate a small sample size, but it is telling that NYR let Lundqvist go, they full expect to run with Shesterkin as, at worst, a 1B this season, and more than likely as starting goalie or 1A. So, what I can do is extrapolate his started GP (12/29=~34/82) over a full season and compare to an avg of goalies in that range (30-40GP), which is ~2.09 fppg. That would leave him at ~71 fpts, so around a 2.5M re-sign.

However, if he's 1A, which he is projected to be, then it's more likely he plays closer to 50GP, again at 2.09, projects him at 105 fpts (4.5M range).

If you want to build an argument that Shesterkin is actually a below average NHL goalie, something his small sample size and qualitative data (NYR likely being stronger this year than last) disagrees with, I'll consider it, however I think a 2-year re-sign at this amount is too much of a bargain.

1 year @ 1.9M. I'll approve for a limited sample size + prove it deal knowing that he'll establish himself next year.
2 years @ 4.25M. You take on the risk that he may be a below-average goalie, but if he's anything equal or above, then this would still be a slight bargain over the 2 years

Working on re-signs and other stuff and I've been thinking of this all night and I'm going to amend my ask but not my denial, I don't think it's fair to ask for 1B salary, and essentially 6.6M on the 2nd year based on my acceptable 1 year amount.

1 year @ 1.9M
2 years @ 3.5M

I really am not interested in arguing or having my voting objectivity called into question, so this will be my last response on this vote attempt #1. We have 4 other awesome voting mods to sort this out from here. I have full confidence that an approval or denial will be the correct decision for this league moving forward, whichever way it is decided.

Thanks Jacob. Not my intention to argue, but rather debate as you suggested I make a case. I just wanted to re-iterate that I believe we need to reward GMs for their carefully forecasted decisions and patience.

Nevertheless thanks for the feedback, we'll come to the right solution, this is a good panel of voting mods.

Cheers

[San Jose Sharks (Alex/Taco)]

Sooooo, this is closed now?

[Devils GM(Colin)]

Just waiting on the new rule being accepted but basically