Darnell Nurse #1 - Denied

[Patrick - NYR]

Darnell Nurse

2020/2021: 1.48 FPPG (56 GP) - Tier 2
2019/2020: 1.20 FPPG (71 GP) - Tier 2
2018/2019: 1.21 FPPG (82 GP) - Tier 2
2017/2018: 0.97 FPPG (82 GP) - Tier 3

I would like to offer a long term contract here as to take on more risk.

I don’t think Nurse is demonstrating a clear upward trend in production, rather his most recent season is an outlier. His sky high 20/21 SH% of 10.4% alone (compared to his career 4.9%) suggests his most recent production will certainly not be replicated. Nurse’s weighted average over the last 4 seasons is 1.19, and 1.28 over his last 3.

NYR (and not Ken Holland) would like to offer the following contract.

$4.5M x 4

[Arizona GM - Jeremy]

I think Nurse is definitely upwards trending, even if shooting percentage drops somewhat back to his average, he still was 0.27 FP/GP higher than any other year.

He also only has 1 year in a lower production Tier, so there's no really justification to bring him down a salary range.

I think 1-2 years I'd accept 5M. 3-4 years I think based on the rubric I'd want 5.75M

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[Patrick - NYR]

Aug 10, 2021 9:49:27 GMT -5 Arizona GM - Jeremy said:

I think Nurse is definitely upwards trending, even if shooting percentage drops somewhat back to his average, he still was 0.27 FP/GP higher than any other year.

He also only has 1 year in a lower production Tier, so there's no really justification to bring him down a salary range.

I think 1-2 years I'd accept 5M. 3-4 years I think based on the rubric I'd want 5.75M

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Yeah that’s the thing, I just don’t see him scoring into that range again unless he continues to be extremely lucky. That’s why I’m hesitant to pay him anything in that range - and particularly anything at the higher end of it.

This is definitely an interesting one and I’d like to see other people’s takes on it.

[Devils GM(Colin)]

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Regardless of the advanced stats and the "luck" factor, he should get 5 mil minimum for 2 years max and after than it accelerates upwards.

If you're worried about this being an outlier, go the 1 yr route and see what he does next year

[CIACubone WSH GM]

I’m sad to inform but I’m gonna have to vote no here, due to the fact that outside of one season he has been on a upward trend and I don’t think he is slowing down any time soon unless something DRAMATIC changes, with that said I agree with Colin if you are worried then do a 1 year deal and I would be willing to accept a cheap deal but at 4 years it would be to much of a steal on your end ):
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