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Post by chris - Hartford Whalers on Aug 11, 2021 15:26:16 GMT -5
Miro Heiskanen
2020/2021: 1.02 fppg (55 GP) - Tier 3
2019/2020: 1.01 fppg (68 GP) - Tier 3
2018/2019: .85 fppg (82 GP) - Tier 3
195pts/205gp = .95fppg average
His numbers are really consistent all 3 years and virtually identical the last 2 seasons giving a solid baseline and career avg of .95 should put him at 1.75m...
Offer: 4 years x 2.5m
Similar resigns (grabbed first 3 i saw from teams in alphabetical order) mcdonagh.. avg 1.08 and paid 3@2.5m - his numbers are a range higher than heiskanen so should be paid a range higher. Fowler.. avg .93 and paid 3@2.25m - his numbers are almost the same schmidt.. last 3 years almost identical to heiskanen (1fppg, 1fppg, .89fppg) paid 3@2m
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Post by Arizona GM - Jeremy on Aug 11, 2021 15:56:44 GMT -5
I think the 3 examples given here aren't great comparators. All 3 of them had already hit their prime, and all three have not unexpectedly had a steep decline since.
Ekblad was provided by Jacob as a comparator, and should be the example here
This was his numbers at the time of the re-sign
19/20 - 1.07 FP/GP - 67 GP - Tier 3 18/19 - 1.02 FP/GP - 82 GP - Tier 3 17/18 - 1.06 FP/GP - 82 GP - Tier 3 16/17 - 0.97 FP/GP - 68 GP - Tier 3
These look pretty similar to Heiskanen, and due the age of both, the longer term deal needs to move up at least a salary range. I think Heiskanen at a lower rate for 1-2 years would have been fine, but for a 4 year deal I just don't see how this can possibly not be pushed up a salary range. 2.75M x 4 was the number Jacob suggested, and I think it's the absolute minimum that should have been offered for 4 years. Weighted average is also something you're leaning on pretty heavily in your arguement, but per the rules, the weighted average only determines where within a range a player should fall, not what range they should fall in.
Sorry, but I think based on the rubric, I'll have to vote 0-1.
I could be off base here though in my assessment, I'll be interested to see how the other voters view this
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Post by chris - Hartford Whalers on Aug 11, 2021 17:46:19 GMT -5
I think this youth inflator rule is purely subjective and never seems consistent and lots of name bias thinking this guy is due to bust out hard.
Take the player’s production from the most recent season to determine his salary range. Before finalizing your offer based on the salary range, check for these conditions:
a) Has the player had 2+ full seasons (30GP+) where he was in a higher production tier? i. If yes, salary offered MUST be one range higher ii. If no, proceed to the next condition b) Has the player had 2+ full seasons in the past where he was in a lower production tier? i. If yes, salary range MAY be one step lower ii. If no, proceed to the next condition c) Do you wish to (if allowed) to offer your player a long-term contract (3-4 years) - If only eligible for 1/2 year contract, read part ii of this step i. If yes, continue to the next condition ii. If no, the player is to be offered a contract within the salary range from the previous step. Please note, the specific amount within the range is not based on his most recent seasons’ production (110 fpts=5M and 129 fpts=6M), but instead weighed based on his past production and 4-year weighted average. For example, if Player A produced 120 fpts, but in previous seasons went 140, 130 and 160, he would garner the max of the 130-149 range since past production has always been higher d) Does the player demonstrate a clear upward trend in production? i. If yes, make an offer one salary range above the suggested salary range ii. If no, make an offer within the salary range for the most recent season.
His last 2 seasons were almost identical statistically and realistically I should be able to make an offer in the current salary range of 1-1.09 where he is the bottom of this range or 2m. If the guy had years of 1.01, 1.02, .85 would we be having this argument ? That .01 uptick in his previous season is worth a 50% raise over the suggested salary ?
Darnell nurse had years of .97, 1.21, 1.2, 1.48. The 1.48 season would garner a 5.75m payout + similar upward trending I would think and yet you suggested he do 5m or a 750k discount. This doesn't provide much consistency on when this youth inflator rule is being used.
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Post by Arizona GM - Jeremy on Aug 11, 2021 18:32:58 GMT -5
For Nurse he was in the 1.40-1.49 salary range, which based on his weighted average, he goes to the bottom of the range, so 5M. However I said, if you want a long term deal (3-4 years) move up a salary range, to 5.75M
Heiskanen I'm saying the same thing, 1-2 years is 2M (bottom of his current salary range), and for long term move up a salary range (2.75M for 3-4 years)
So I'd argue I'm very consistent here
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Post by Devils GM(Colin) on Aug 12, 2021 1:24:43 GMT -5
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Post by Patrick - NYR on Aug 12, 2021 3:02:12 GMT -5
0-2 I'd approve $2.75M x 4 years
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Post by chris - Hartford Whalers on Aug 12, 2021 9:23:59 GMT -5
think i provided a good argument and support via other resigns but guess not. The ekblad and sergachev both were at the top of the range when resigned where heiskanen was at the bottom of that range and had 2 identical years arguing against tangible progression. Its not worth beating a dead horse anymore so just change it to 2.75x4 and be done with it.
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Post by JetsGM (Jacob) on Aug 13, 2021 8:56:45 GMT -5
0-3
250K/year is a strange hill to die on we do not edit halfway through voting. Could have easily discussed your comps and points made with mods before posting. There's been quite a few comps presented that were young and demanded their salary range be maxed out on 4 year contracts. The difference within a salary range (0.9) is 7 fpts over an 82GP season, so by the raw numbers, this is a minimal request to ask a player to max out his salary range when he clearly has room to improve.
We'll put this firmly into writing for U23 player re-signs for next offseason.
To avoid Heiskanen becoming UFA, we will approve 2x2M bridge deal, 3-4 year contract is no longer possible. Please accept or decline in reply to this post.
If declined, per the rules, Heiskanen becomes a UFA and you can bid on him there.
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Post by chris - Hartford Whalers on Aug 14, 2021 20:03:57 GMT -5
While I’m a little disappointed how this went I’ll obv take the 2@2m offer.
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